# Marty Smithson > Marty Smithson: marketing science and measurement. Media mix modeling (MMM) with Google Meridian, multi-touch attribution, experimentation and incrementality testing (GeoLift and RCTs), and cash MER versus platform ROAS. Working demos on synthetic data and method write-ups. Head of Business Intelligence & Performance Marketing at Black Clover. Marketing Analytics & Measurement Lead — Meridian MMM, incrementality, cash MER, executive BI — $25M+ paid mix. $25M+ is the career total of managed ad spend I have directed across Google, Meta, TikTok, Amazon, and Microsoft. Head of Business Intelligence & Performance Marketing, Black Clover. Founder and Data Analytics Consultant, McFly Ads. BS, Utah Valley University. ## How I'm different - Has owned the spend: I have directed $25M+ in managed ad spend across Google, Meta, TikTok, Amazon, and Microsoft. A model read from me comes from someone who has had to act on it. - Ships products: The Mcfly Analytics Shopify App is live for merchants, and the thinking behind it is published as a dated, sourced measurement explainer. - Cash over platform: I reconcile to booked cash and MER. A platform's reported ROAS is that platform's claim: it stays on the page as context, not as the budget. - Builds with Cursor and AI agents: Real systems, not slides. The measurement tooling, the Shopify app, and the working demos on this site are built with Cursor and AI agents. Topics: marketing science, MMM (media mix modeling), attribution (multi-touch attribution), experimentation, incrementality (GeoLift and RCTs), cash MER versus platform ROAS, executive reporting. ## Measurement: Working demos, not claims Five small instruments that show how I think about marketing science: mix models, geo tests, experiment sizing, attribution, and the executive read. Every figure inside them is synthetic and generated in your browser. None of it is client or employer data. - [MMM budget reallocation](https://marty-smithson.pages.dev/measurement/mmm-budget) (demo, synthetic data): Channel response curves with saturation. Move spend between channels and watch predicted revenue, blended MER, and each channel's marginal return update live. - [Geo test readout](https://marty-smithson.pages.dev/measurement/geo-test) (demo, synthetic data): Test markets against a pre-period-scaled control. A lift estimate with an uncertainty band and a keep, cut, or keep-testing call against break-even. - [Experiment power calculator](https://marty-smithson.pages.dev/measurement/power-calculator) (demo, synthetic data): Sample size per arm and test duration from the baseline, the minimum detectable effect, the variance, and your traffic. - [Attribution comparison](https://marty-smithson.pages.dev/measurement/attribution) (demo, synthetic data): The same synthetic customers credited three ways: last-click, data-driven (Shapley), and an MMM-style incremental view. Plus a reconciliation of paid, affiliate, and creator claims against real orders. - [Executive MER dashboard](https://marty-smithson.pages.dev/measurement/mer-dashboard) (demo, synthetic data): Cash MER against platform ROAS over time, with a break-even line set by contribution margin and a fail-closed week when the data isn't complete. ## Method write-ups - [The shift from MTA to macro-measurement](https://marty-smithson.pages.dev/methods/macro-measurement): Why user-level click paths stopped being a reliable budget source, dated and sourced, and what replaced them: modeled conversions, MMM, lift tests, and MER. By Marty Smithson; adapted from https://mcflyanalytics.com/learn/macro-measurement, with its sources. - [How I'd approach an MMM](https://marty-smithson.pages.dev/methods/mmm-workflow): Start from the budget decision, build the data honestly, let experiments anchor the model, and present a recommendation with its range. - [How I'd design a geo test](https://marty-smithson.pages.dev/methods/geo-test-design): Pre-register the decision, pick markets that track each other, size the test from real pre-period noise, and read the interval against break-even. - [How I'd reconcile platform numbers with cash](https://marty-smithson.pages.dev/methods/platform-vs-cash): Define one source of truth for sales and spend, explain the gap line by line, de-duplicate claims, and report cash MER with platform ROAS as context. ## Cases - [Black Clover: Read the model, then move the money](https://marty-smithson.pages.dev/work/black-clover) — Head of Business Intelligence & Performance Marketing, Feb 2025 – present. I direct the paid mix for the CEO against cash MER. Meridian MMM is the read on where each channel's returns flatten; GeoLift tests and RCTs settle it when two channels claim the same sale. - [Black Clover: One number leadership can trust](https://marty-smithson.pages.dev/work/executive-bi) — Head of Business Intelligence & Performance Marketing, Feb 2025 – present. The measurement only matters if leadership reads the same number. I built the pipelines, the warehouse move, the real-time MER dashboards, and the executive reporting under it. - [Nutricost: Separating channel impact from noise](https://marty-smithson.pages.dev/work/nutricost) — Advertising Data Scientist, Aug 2024 – Feb 2025. I built statistical measurement frameworks for a multi-channel paid portfolio across Amazon, Google, Meta, and TikTok, and developed MTA, cohort, and predictive analyses to guide spend decisions. - [McFly Ads: Measurement for brands, and a product for merchants](https://marty-smithson.pages.dev/work/mcfly) — Founder and Data Analytics Consultant, Apr 2020 – present. McFly Ads is my consulting practice: measurement strategy, attribution, and media optimization for e-commerce and DTC brands. The Mcfly Analytics Shopify App is a separate side product I built and ship, live at mcflyanalytics.com. ## Credo platform ≠ incremental ≠ cash. A platform's ROAS is that platform's claim. An experiment measures what was incremental. Cash MER is what the business booked against what it actually spent. Budget decisions run on the last two. ## Pages - [Home](https://marty-smithson.pages.dev/) - [Work](https://marty-smithson.pages.dev/work) - [Resume](https://marty-smithson.pages.dev/resume) - [Plain-text resume](https://marty-smithson.pages.dev/resume.md) - [Resume PDF](https://marty-smithson.pages.dev/resumes/Marty_Smithson_Resume.pdf) - [Contact](https://marty-smithson.pages.dev/contact): martysmithson04@gmail.com ## Product - [Mcfly Analytics Shopify App](https://mcflyanalytics.com): spend-next-to-sales Total ROAS desk for merchants. Totals reconcile to Shopify, customer value comes from orders already placed, Total ROAS does not credit sales to a channel, and there is no pixel. Live. A side product, separate from the McFly Ads consulting practice. - [Live public demo](https://mcflyanalytics.com/demo) (sample shop) - [Shopify App Store listing](https://apps.shopify.com/mcfly-analytics-public) - [MMM for small Shopify stores](https://mcflyanalytics.com/compare/mmm-for-small-stores)